DDR4 Prices Continue to Rise, Nearly Doubling Those of DDR5

According to a survey by Digitimes, after experiencing wild fluctuations in the second quarter, the spot prices of DDR4 have gradually stabilized. However, due to the persistent tight supply, contract prices remain on an upward trend. This has led to an "abnormal" phenomenon: DDR4 memory, a previous-generation product, is actually more expensive than the latest-generation DDR5 memory (which offers faster speeds), with DDR4 prices being nearly twice as high as those of DDR5.

Industry data shows that in August, the price of DDR4 16GB (2Gx8) chips rose by nearly 7%, reaching $9.17 per chip; in contrast, DDR5 products of the same capacity fell by 3% to $5.99. This has widened the price gap between the two generations of memory to nearly 50%. Meanwhile, as Samsung officially withdrew from DDR3 production and Taiwanese manufacturers in China have limited production capacity, a market rush for DDR3 memory has been triggered. Following a 20% surge in July, its price rose by another 13%.

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On the surface, this seems like a simple case of supply shortage, but in reality, there is a hidden logic behind it. Giants such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are gradually cutting DDR4 production capacity and shifting their production lines to DDR5 (which generates higher profits) and high-bandwidth memory (HBM)—products that are being siphoned up by the "frenetic" AI market. This has further intensified the scarcity of DDR4, ultimately forcing consumers to bear the "abnormal" high prices of DDR4.

This price hike storm is not driven by a surge in demand, but rather by suppliers’ deliberate control of production capacity. Major wafer fabs are prioritizing the production of HBM chips for Nvidia H100 and AMD Instinct accelerators. Each wafer switched to HBM production means a further shrinkage of the DDR4 market. This capacity allocation has forced system integrators and distributors to start stockpiling to avoid risks, which in turn has led to a market price inversion: DDR4, a relatively technologically outdated product, is actually more expensive than the new-generation DDR5. Essentially, PC consumers are footing the bill for the AI boom—memory manufacturers are well aware that they can still maximize profits from old-specification products before completely discontinuing their production.

Although growth in the spot market is sluggish, analysts predict that contract prices will continue to climb until the end of the year. ADATA Technology forecasts that after inventory is cleared, DDR4 demand will rebound in September, while NAND flash prices will remain firm due to cautious capacity expansion. This means that DDR4 buyers will hardly see price declines in the short term, and the limited capacity allocation of wafer fabs is destined to keep contract prices rising in the fourth quarter.

For users still using AM4 platforms or 12th/13th-generation Intel platforms, if there is an urgent need to expand memory capacity, now may be an appropriate time to purchase DDR4. However, for users building new computers, DDR5 not only offers better cost-effectiveness but is also an inevitable choice for the future development of the market.